A statement on the disaster that happened in 2004, costing 2,000 peoples lives. The article discusses the various factors including; climate change, forestry, the nature of landslides and the response to the disaster.

Foreword by Peter Walpole, Director of ESSC

The disaster that swept major areas in Aurora and Quezon provinces last year (2004) from 14 November to 3 December can be defined as a "100-year event," given its magnitude and the devastating impact on the physical and social landscapes^1. There were four tropical cyclones Unding, Violeta, Winnie and Yoyong² that passed through these areas in the Philippines and unleashed volumes of rainfall^3. Everybody agrees the rains were way above normal, intense, and prolonged over two weeks. After a year, the dispute remains as to whether upland logging caused the floods; opinions range from this being the primary cause to that of being of no consequence.

There are three reasons why logging in the area may initially be viewed as the cause of destruction. First, there is the idea of deforestation leading to the loss of the "sponge effect" and the absorption of water. Second, there is the visible reality of large numbers of landslides in degraded areas. Third, there is the implicit feeling of moral outrage against logging for the loss and damage to the environment experienced in so many parts of the country for decades. Logging operators recently used as a basis to initiate further logging the international agency statements ‘that forest cover does not prevent floods;' this only compounded the outrage.

Simply put, the increasing housing and settlement areas in the valleys, flood plains, and deltas throughout the Philippines are locations that run the grave risk of disaster. Given the volume of rain that fell last year over the east coast of Luzon during the long saturation period of around 20 days and the large amount of loose material swept down by the rivers, this risk turned real. Given the magnitude of the event, we have to review - element by element, along with the combined interrelation of these elements contributing to the floods - our perceptions and understanding of how such disasters occur, as these strategically affect how society responds. It would be hard to find a watershed in the Philippines where the upland area (18 degrees slope and greater) is not at least 50% deforested and with virtually no soil and water conservation strategy in place. We need to understand more specifically what role forests and reforestation plays.

²The international names of these typhoons or storms are: Muifa, Merbok, Winnie, Nanmadol

³There is incomplete rainfall data but the first three events registered 685mm in Infanta; for the final event the nearest record was Munoz at 1,790mm, 70km due east of the coastline.