Ms Shan Tang

Over the last decade, water scarcity is increasingly coupled with international security and national security (Boesen and Ravnborg, 2004). Water is vital for life, crucial for livelihoods, and essential for the ecosystem.

According to Postel and Wolf (2001), the only recorded war over water was 4,500 years ago between two Mesopotamian city-states, Lagash and Umma in today's southern Iraq. An analysis of 1,831 international water-related events over the last 50 years reveals that two-thirds of them yielded cooperation, for instance cooperative research or treaties (p1).

Although wars over water have not occurred in recent history, water problems are likely to, in my opinion, lead to conflicts through political instability, poverty, or diseases.

There are also studies or international documents that perceive the possibility of future water wars. In 1995, the World Bank vice-president Ismal Serageldin said that "many of the wars of this century were about oil, but wars of the next century will be about water" (New York Times, 1995). Wolf (1998) argued that the competition for limited freshwater can lead to severe political tensions and even to war. Kofi Annan said in 2000, "fierce competition for fresh water may become a source of conflict and wars in the future."

The reason why water scarcity may lead to wars is that water is a vital, finite resource and irreplaceable in many of its uses and in the imbalance between water availability and demand of water. Water has become scarcer relative to the demands today than in the past due to world population increase.

Studies confirm that only 2.5% of all the water on Earth is freshwater; however about 70% of this 2.5% is frozen in polar icecaps. Thus, less than 1% of the world's freshwater (about 0.07% of all water on Earth) is actually accessible for human use. There are 1.2 billion people who do not have a safe source of water and the number would hit around 5.5 billion by 2025 (UN-Water Factsheet).

History shows that water sharing has brought cooperation and peace to neighboring countries, even hostile ones. As a result, there is a hopeful notion that freshwater may foster cooperation rather than conflict in the future.

However, given the nature of water resources, a perception of a zero-sum situation can be created, in which one part's gain is perceived as another's loss, both within and between countries (Postel and Wolf, 2001).

The most likely security issue related to water is that water scarcity can lead to domestic instability, food security, and poverty. Political instability and economic poverty are the main sources of grievances and causes of protests and violence. In developing countries, agriculture, which is the most important source of livelihoods, is heavily dependent on water resources. The lack of water supplies will definitely affect people's livelihoods such as food or income or lead them to poverty. Farmers may not only resort to protests or violence and cause domestic instability, but also migrate to other places to survive. The massive internal migration, which has already happened in almost all Asian countries, is leading again to political, economic and social instability and riots (Postel and Wolf, 2001).

Conversely, I believe good governance, cooperation at all levels, and justice in water management will contribute to peace. The World Water Vision concluded that the world does not suffer form a shortage of water but from mismanagement of this precious resource (Cosgrove, 2003, p15). Water scarcity is not a new topic and water scarcity has been an engine for human innovations; however, relief mechanisms have so far entailed greater demands for water in the long run than what is available at prevailing withdrawal, transport, and treatment costs (p23).

Human values of justice and cooperation are the right solutions to the world's water crisis and water-related crisis.

First, water management requires good governance. The weakness of governance at all levels, including national and international, is what accounts for the water crisis. The water crisis cannot be resolved without an improvement in the system of governance in a country and at international levels and cannot be isolated from other development sectors either.

More efforts could be focused on sustainable use of water resources. Agriculture accounts for about 80% to 90% of water use in development countries (UN-Water). As a result, an improvement of irrigation techniques, recycling, and reusing wastewater can improve the productivity of water use and reduce the scarcity of water.

Moreover, effective regulations and policies are needed in most countries on water use that encourage protecting water from degradation and waste. Governments should regulate poorly regulated private sectors or industries and install a new system for its planning, and assess the privatization of water services and damming, for instance.

Second, participation of all stakeholders such as local people, government officials, researchers, communities, minority groups, and women is needed. They should be involved in the decision or policy making and implementation process.

Third, the character of water resources complicates the water issue, especially when more than one sector or state shares the water resource. In this case, cooperation is called for. Cooperation on water sharing not only helps to reduce conflicts but also builds peace. Again, cooperation requires political will and commitment from governments to really work on a mutually acceptable and beneficial framework. The key is again related to good governance regarding the government's will and commitment to establish a process of cooperation early, before serious hostilities erupt that make any cooperation or negotiation difficult or impossible.

Last, international law and regulations that support integrated management for shared water should be enhanced and strengthened. Since many nations fail to commit to their agreement or decline to cooperate over the shared water resource, the responsibilities of international law should be to ensure the provision of a clear framework for cooperative management of water and prevention of water conflicts.

Ms Shan Tang is from China and is part of the student batch for SY2010-2011 of the Dual Campus Master of Arts Programme in Environmental Security and Peace, Asia Leaders Programme at the University for Peace and Ateneo de Manila University. Shan also holds a bachelor's degree in Spanish and International Relations (dual major) from Peking University and was the Coordinator of the Global Call to Action against Poverty China from September 2009 to September 2010.

This is Shan's reflection paper for the lecture that Pedro Walpole gave on Practices of Conflict Management in Asia focusing on natural resources and resource use, conflict, and management last 18 to 20 April 2011.

References:

Postel, S. and Wolf, A. (2001). Dehydrating Conflict . Foreign Policy, (Sept./Oct.2001):60-67.

UN-Water: Water for Life, 2005-2010.

Boesen, J. and Ravnborg, H.M. (2004). From Water ‘Wars' to Water ‘Riots'? - Lessons from Transboundary Water Management. DIIS Working Paper No 2004/6. Danish Institute for International Studies. 2004. Pp. 5-18, 113-159.

Grey, D and Sadoff, C.D. 2007.Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and development. Water Policy 9: 545-571.

Barnaby, W. (2009). Do nations go to war over water? Nature 458(19 March 2009): 282-83.