Prospects for a stable, long-term peace in the Philippines suffered four major blows during the past week.

The first blow against peace was the indefinite suspension of the peace talks between the Philippine government and the NDF as announced by the GPH head negotiator Alex Padilla last October. As with the government-MILF conflict, a deep confidence gap divides the two sides. The NDF accuses the government panel of reneging on promises to release most of the 11 prisoners it identified as its consultants. On the other hand, the GPH panel charges the NDF for failing to satisfy its criteria on releasing these prisoners, and denies having made this commitment at all.

Even if the divide in such matters may seem too wide to bridge, it appears that the step taken to indefinitely postpone the talks heavily reflects a lack of brinkmanship, especially considering the enormous historical and social stake of the country in the peace process. Whether this decision taken is driven by a lack of creativity in the statesmanship of governance, or by a lack of political will on the part of the negotiators to push the peace process, it is hard to tell at the moment. What is clear is that in either case, the suspension of the peace negotiations works against the goal of peace.

What is also most unfortunate is that the derailing of the government-NDF talks comes at a stage when the contending parties are set to attempt to tackle and eventually resolve the most crucial and critical bone of contention of the two parties, "socio-economic reforms." The decisions that could be arrived at in the process could impact significantly and substantially on the poverty and livelihood situation of communities throughout the country and thus help build a peace founded on the hard rock of social justice. The opportunity cost of allowing the peace process to peter out in the face of what now appears to be simple intransigence on both sides is simply too large for the nation and poor communities to afford.

The second blow against peace comes in the form of the murder of Fr. Fausto Tentorio, fondly called Fr. Pops, last 17 October in Arakan, North Cotabato, from 10 gunshot wounds fired by an assassin still on the loose. An Italian priest of the Pontifical Institute for Foreign Missions (PIME), he was organizing Basic Christian Communities among marginalized Indigenous Peoples and poor communities in Mindanao for 39 years when he was killed. Praised by Pope Benedict for his courage and indefatigability, he was distinguished for his staunch defense of the environment and of Indigenous People's rights even as he faced grave threats to his life.

The assassination echoes the brutal murder in 1985 of PIME's first martyr in the country, Fr. Tulio Favali, at the hands of paramilitary leaders purportedly organized by the military during the martial law repression of the Marcos dictatorship. For this and other reasons, Fr. Tentorio's associates in the communities where he lived, worked, and helped empower, link his death to conflict with paramilitary and military forces over issues and advocacies against deforestation, mining policies, alleged human rights violations, and what was termed by the Catholic Educational Association of the Philippines, as the "militarization of indigenous peoples."

Fr. Tentorio was a priest who devoted his life and mission to the pursuit of peace, justice, and human development of Indigenous Peoples. It is a great disservice to align his death to an "anti-mining" context, as was initially reported. Fr Tentorio was a priest who lived Christ's life as much as he could, full stop. His murder must not remain another statistic and his killers must be brought to justice, full stop.

The third major blow to peace came in the form of two major clashes between the AFP and the MILF, one leading to 19 AFP Special Forces troops and seven MILF guerrillas killed in Al-Barka, Basilan last 18 October, and the other, ending in the death of four AFP soldiers and three Philippine National Police personnel from ambushes in Alicia and Kabasalan towns in Zamboanga Sibugay last 20 October. Other incidents attributed to the MILF by military officials since then were reported, but the participation of the MILF is yet to be confirmed.

Both sides accuse the other of violating the government-MILF ceasefire pact. The MILF claims that it merely foiled the attempt to arrest one of its rebel leaders, Dan Laksaw Asnawi, denouncing this as a deliberate act of provocation by the AFP. The military, on the other hand, while admitting the mission to arrest the rebel leader, maintains that the ambush took place outside rebel territory and was thus a violation of the ceasefire agreement.

Regardless of the real score, these developments reflect a growing distrust between the two parties. On the government side, these trends are accompanied by what appear to be mixed signals. President Aquino and the head of his negotiating panel with the MILF, Marvic Leonen, declare that the pursuit of the peace talks and the resolution of long-standing issues, such as Moro self-determination or autonomy and ancestral domain through a political settlement, remain the primary thrusts despite the incidents.

Responding to media inquiries the day following the clash, AFP spokesperson Antonio Parlade, Jr., however, called for the pursuit of the rebels and suspension of the cessation of hostilities. For this, he was relieved of his post last 21 October after a command conference presided by President Aquino. However, interviewed again by media, Parlade projected defiance, insisting that his actions were correct. He declared that he was "happy knowing our soldiers' voice and sentiments were heard" and that "we are not politicians, we are soldiers."

The relief of Parlade seems to reassert civilian supremacy and control in the person of the Commander-in-chief over the military. But it fails to completely dampen suspicions that in dealing with the MILF, the situation seems to be that the left hand may not know what the right hand is doing, one that does not bode well for the peace process.

Amid assertions by both the MILF and NDF that the government discarded agreements arrived at before, the level of distrust escalated to grave doubts and accusations about the other side's sincerity and good faith. Expressing extreme frustration, the MILF rejected the proposed "3-in-1" plan offered by the GPH panel last August for lack of "continuity," or what it calls not taking into account past resolutions, and as being "heaven and earth" in its divergence with its own proposed Comprehensive Compact. The GPH panel however insists that the two proposals are not poles apart, a statement that in itself already reveals the reality of a great conceptual gap between the GPH and MILF panels.

The fourth major blow to peace is the all-out war frenzy being whipped up in the mainstream media. Since 18 October, a string of politicians, some of them formerly connected with the military and police, continue to vigorously campaign through TV and newspaper outlets for the suspension of the ceasefire agreement and the waging of an all-out war against the MILF. In the process, they hope to gain political capital and score propaganda points with prospective voters.

To raise viewer ratings and readership, a large section of mass media jumped upon and rode the war-mongering bandwagon. For instance, ABS-CBN's TV Patrol, its primetime news program, had its hosts stage a viewers' poll last 20 October asking them whether or not they favor launching all-out war against the MILF and concluding that nearly 100% wanted an all-out conflict. This crass media response that reduces a sensitive and dangerous situation to a "texting" game for TV viewers mostly in Metro Manila is the height of irresponsibility in the pursuit of higher TV ratings.

This and other irresponsible and opportunistic attempts to build up a public opinion groundswell for the all-out war seek to manipulate and exploit the age-old ethnic and religious prejudices against the Moro peoples. They promote ethnic and social discord, rather than social solidarity.

Meanwhile, in the case of Fr. Tentorio's murder, the actual identities of the mastermind and perpetrators of the crime are yet to be established although police investigators are gathering some witnesses and leads. Still, it is clear that those who killed Fr. Ternorio did so on the basis of a mindset that whatever problem he may have represented to them could be resolved simply by a militaristic approach justifying his murder.

Therein lies the common thread that runs through all these four developments against peace. The exponents of abandoning peace talks in favor of all-out war or what are perceived to be military solutions in these conflicts fail to see or embrace the larger social picture and vision of genuine peace.

It must be recognized that if waged, the all-out war now being demanded against the MILF will neither address nor solve the most pressing and urgent problems confronting the marginalized communities of Mindanao today. It will neither eliminate nor lessen the poverty and hunger they suffer day to day. Even though it's harvest time, many people in Mindanao still live on two meals a day and a supplement of marang (a local fruit) in between. An all-out war will exacerbate their already severe lack of basic needs, and their already untenable lack of freedom from hunger.

Even if such exploits in the battlefield are victorious, as long as they do not address and resolve the underlying problems of social and environmental injustice, they can only be fleeting and fragile. More than ceasing the gunfire, peace talks open the window of opportunity of coming to grips with these issues of social and environmental inequities and building a society based on adequate human development and security. Meanwhile, the clock that tells us we do not have that peace yet remains ticking.